Newsletter: Palm Coast and Flagler Distressed Home Sales Declining

Median home selling price is up 13.3%, but the increase is largely due to the decline in the percentage of sales comprised of distressed properties.

Palm Coast, FL – July 13, 2014 – The Palm Coast and Flagler County looks robust. The median selling price of single-family Flagler homes through MLS in June rose 13.3% to $162,500 from $144,500 one year ago. But the increase is largely due to a decline in the percentage of sales comprised of distressed properties. The number of homes selling remains essentially unchanged from a year ago. It appears that the market is getting healthier rather than stronger.

  June 2013 June 2014 % Change 1/2 2013 1/2 2014 % Change
Flagler Home Sales 1/2 2013 vs. 1/2 2014
All Homes   178   182   2.2%   1049   1027   -2.1%
  Median Price   $144,500   $163,700   13.3%   $137,000   $153,000   11.7%
  $/SF   $89.22   $98.38   10.3%   $86.16   $95.52   10.9%
  Total Sales $34,117,592 $35,870,053   5.1% $188,229,002  $201,356,040   7.0%
Cash Sales   85   79   -7.1%   586   483   -17.6%
  Median Price   $136,000   $162,500   19.5%   $126,300   $144,900   14.7%
  $/SF   $85.37   $93.24   9.2%   $83.02   $92.28   11.2%
  Total Sales $16,055,503 $14,553,014   -9.4% $99,578,874 $92,738,136   -6.9%
  Short Sales   24   7   -70.8%   186   63   -66.1%
  Median Price   $125,425   $125,000   -0.3%   $114,750   $127,000   10.7%
  $/SF   $70.37   $78.28   11.2%   $65.28   $72.93   11.7%
  Total Sales $3,889,550 $1,179,000   -69.7% $25,374,610 $9,675,300   -61.9%
  REO Sales   40   34   -15.0%   224   269   20.1%
  Median Price   $111,550   $122,500   9.8%   $111,750   $125,000   11.9%
  $/SF   $71.18   $70,95   -0.3%   $66.08   $74.14   12.2%
  Total Sales $5,603,617 $4,324,275   -22.8% $28,306,731 $37,604,057   32.8%
Non-Distressed Sales   114   141   23.7%   638   694   8.8%
  Median Price   $170,900   $170,000   -0.5%   $160,000   $170,000   6.3%
  $/SF   $99.52   $105,99   6.5%   $99.25   $105,74   6.5%
  Total Sales $24,624,425 $30,366,778   23.3% $134,107,661 $153,656,683   14.6%

Before the Great Recession, distressed sales represented an insignificant portion of the housing market. Locally, that percentage grew to exceed 50% of all home sales during the depth of the housing slump. The trend of decreasing distressed sales continues. June numbers are more favorable than the 2014 first half numbers. The same can be said about June 2013 vs. the first half of that year.

Year % Distressed
Distressed Sales as a % of All Sales
2008   36.8%
2009   54.6%
2010   53.6%
2011   52.8%
2012   48.6%
2013   35.9%
1/2 2014   32.3%
June 2014   22.5%

Through the Great Recession, distressed properties could be found in all segments of the market. The fact that some areas were affected more than others is apparent when comparing different communities within the City and County.

But the rate of distressed sales likely has little to do with the desirability of any particular community, but more to do with the timing of construction within each community. There were 4,974 distressed homes sold during the period including 2008 through the first half of 2014 at a median selling price of $119,000.

66.4% of those distressed homes were built during the seven years including 2001 through 2007. That’s when the real estate bubble combined irrational prices and unsustainable demand with slack lending standards. Consequently, distressed sales were more prevalent in those communities that experienced the most new construction at that time. Conditions were ripe for buyers to get in over their head.

Upscale communities fared better than their more modest counterparts. Presumably, their owners had more equity in their homes and/or they had more financial reserves to carry them through the slump. The differences can be seen clearly in the following table which shows currently listed inventory and the percentage of distressed listings (MLS).

  Listing % Distressed Absorptioni Rate*
Flagler Distressed Home Listings and Absorption Rates
All Flagler Homes   986   13.5%   5.8
Belle Terre   28   32.1%   5.3
Cypress Knolls   34   14.7%   5.4
Indian Trails   82   18.3%   3.7
Lehigh Woods   84   22.6%   4.7
Matanzas Woods   23   26.1%   3.8
Palm Harbor   28   35.7%   5.0
Pine Grove   58   27.6%   5.6
Pine Lakes   102   11.8%   5.1
Quail Hollow   24   8.3%   4.6
Seminole Woods   31   19.4%   3.3
Flagler Beach   81   3.7%   12.3
Palm Coast Plantation   13   7.7%   11.1
Grand Haven   55   9.1%   8.3
Hammock Dunes DRI**   96   1.0%   20.6

* Absorption rate indicates how many sales months of inventory at current prices.

** Hammock Dunes DRI includes Hammock Dunes, Hammock Beach, Ocean Hammock, Harbor Village Marina and Island Estates.

The absorption rates for Short Sales, REO and Non-Distressed are 4.1, 2.0 and 7.4 respectively.

Flagler's condominium market can be distinguished as two segments; the Hammock Dunes DRI and All Others. The differences are apparent in the following chart.

1/2 2014 Hammock Dunes DRI All Other
Flagler Condominium Market Statistics
Units Sold   37   63
Median Price   $435,000   $132,500
Ave $SF   $228.18   $109.36
Total Sales   $16,948,950   $16,246,472
Units Listed 4 sale   126   135
Absorptioin Rate   20.4   7.5

 

2 replies
  1. newt
    newt says:

    am I using the numbers correctly ?

    The numbers { medium price 6/14 X sq. footage price same time period )

    seem to indicate that my home which is in EXCELLENT condition…..and well above average….would sell for $196,000………….does not make sense……..

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