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Fla. Consumer Confidence Fairly Steady in Jan.

Consumer sentiment among Floridians fell three-tenths of a point to 97.8 in January from a revised figure of 98.1 in December. It's down 3.5 points year-to-year.

By Toby Tobin

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – January 30, 2019 – Consumer sentiment among Floridians fell three-tenths of a point to 97.8 in January from a revised figure of 98.1 in December. It's down 3.5 points year-to-year.

Of the five components that make up the index, two decreased and three increased.

Current conditions
Floridians' opinions about current economic conditions were mixed. Perception of one's personal financial situation now compared with a year ago increased 6.1 points from 88.1 to 94.2 – the greatest increase of any reading this month. This opinion is shared by all Floridians across sociodemographic groups but is stronger among those with incomes under $50,000.

On the other hand, opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item, such as an appliance, showed the greatest decline in this month's readings, moving from 109.6 to 99.8 – a change of 9.8 points. This opinion is shared by all Floridians but is stronger among women and those aged 60 and older.

"Although these two components of the index moved in opposite directions, together they showed that opinions regarding current economic conditions deteriorated among Floridians in January," says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Future conditions
Outlooks about future economic conditions were also mixed. Expectations of personal finances a year from now increased three points from 106 to 109, but anticipations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased nine-tenths of a point from 94 to 93.1.

Finally, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased slightly, moving two-tenths of a point higher, from 92.8 to 93.

"The pessimistic views about the short-term outlook on the U.S. economy are not shared by all Floridians," says Sandoval. "Those aged 60 and older and those with incomes under $50,000 maintain strong positive expectations. Furthermore, even though this component of the index decreased, overall expectations about future economic conditions increased in January. Most of the pessimism stems from the negative expectations regarding Floridians' opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket item."

During the last year, after seeing the realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee increased the target range for the federal funds rate. In June, the committee increased the range to 1.75 to 2 percent, in September to 2 to 2.25 percent, and in December to 2.25 to 2.5 percent.

"Although these changes in the federal funds rate might take time to spread through the economy, they are gradually increasing the cost of borrowing by affecting other interest rates such as bank loans, mortgages and credit cards," says Sandoval. "As a result, they might explain some of the changes observed regarding the opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item."

Forecast
Florida's economic conditions remain favorable, with more jobs added in December.

According to the latest report from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, the state gained 231,200 jobs over the year in December, an increase of 2.7 percent. Among all industries, education and health services gained the most jobs, followed by leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and construction. The unemployment rate was 3.3 percent, unchanged from the November rate, and closer to the historically observed minimum of 3.1 percent in March 2006.

"Despite the slight decline, consumer sentiment continued to be high in Florida. In view of the realized economic outlook, particularly in the labor market, it is unlikely that federal funds rate changes will undermine the current economic expansion," says Sandoval.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. 


Toby Tobin: REALTOR®, SRES®

I am a Florida licensed REALTOR®, SRES®, affiliated with Grand Living Realty in Palm Coast, Fla. I have years of experience and a treasure trove of relevant analytics. By consulting with me, developers, builders, homebuyers, and sellers achieve improved outcomes and reduced stress, knowing that their real estate decisions are fact-based.

Call me at (386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com.

Listen to my radio show, Real Estate Mattersevery Saturday morning right after the 11:00 A.M. news break on WNZF News Radio 1550 AM or 94.9 FM. Download the Flagler Radio App from the App Store so you can hear Real Estate Matters anywhere in the world.

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Don "Toby" Tobin is a licensed real estate professional affiliated with Grand Living Realty. Toby is a member of the Flagler County Association of Realtors®, the Florida Association of Realtors, Enterprise Flagler, Flagler Home Builders Association, and the National Association of Realtors.

GoToby.com proivdes real estate news, commentary, and analysis for Palm Coast and Flagler Country Florida, as well as Realtor® referrals and consultation to buyers, sellers, and developers.