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PALM COAST, FL – December 22, 2020 – The U.S. Census Bureau yesterday released the annual population estimate for the country and individual states. (These are estimates as of July 1, 2020. They are not the official 2020 Census numbers.) The report confirms that the Northeast and Midwest regions are losing population while the West and Southeast regions benefit from population gains.
New York led the list of states losing the most residents; 126,355 (more than the total population of Flagler County). New York was followed by Illinois, California, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to round out the top five.
Top Ten States with the greatest estimated loss of residents (July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2020):
A 24/7 Wall Street study published in March 2019, ranked states by the state and local burden measuring taxes paid as a percentage of income. There is a strong correlation between tax burdened states and those with the greatest population loss. The top five high tax states all made the top ten list of the greatest population decline.
Ten States with the highest state and local tax burden as a percentage of income:
Florida is #35: 8.9%
States gaining the most residents were largely from the South and West Regions:
Five of only nine states with no state income tax are on the top ten list of states gaining the most residents.
Covid-19 death rates by state (per 100,000 people) as of December 22, 2020 – those states that lost the greatest population are highlighted.
State to state tax discrepancies will not likely shrink in the future because the exodus of particularly wealthy residents from high tax states will further erode the state’s tax base.
While the Covid-19 pandemic will pass, many lifestyle changes and coping mechanisms learned during the pandemic will not; much as the behavior of those who survived the Great Depression was permanently altered.
Civil unrest (riots) has not been as well documented because so much was underreported or misclassified as peaceful demonstrations. However, public safety is a powerful motivating force. If good statistics were available, it is anecdotally obvious that the high-tax states and high-coronavirus death rate states would be joined by the riot prone states on the top ten lists. Like lingering post-pandemic behavior, public safety too will continue to play a significant role in future migration patterns.
Toby Tobin: REALTOR®
I'm a licensed Florida REALTOR® affiliated with Grand Living Commercial Realty in Palm Coast, Fla. As a real estate consultant to developers/builders, homebuyers, and sellers, and as a journalist, I have years of experience and a treasure trove of relevant data and local institutional knowledge.
Call me at (386) 931-7124 or email me at Toby@GoToby.com.
Listen to my radio show, Real Estate Matters, every Saturday morning right after the 11:00 A.M. news break on WNZF News Radio at 1550 AM or 94.9 FM. Download the Flagler Radio App from the App Store so you can hear Real Estate Matters from anywhere in the world.