Economic Indicators: Weekly Update – April 9

A weekly analysis of the economic data released during the past week, and how current economic conditions are affecting the real estate market.

Palm Coast, FL – April 9, 2011 – Every week the Research staff analyzes key data releases and explain what they mean for you and your business. In this update, we give the highlights of the most important data releases for the week of April 4-April 8, 2011, along with graphs that show the latest movement and overall trends.

At a glance, this table shows the forecast for some of the most pertinent weekly data for REALTORS® to keep in mind. This changes from week to week as new data becomes available. The directional shift notes the trend from last week’s numbers. For the full forecast from the latest Pending Home Sales release, click here (PDF).

Highlights for Monday, April 04, 2011

• The interest rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has remained relatively flat over the last month and is currently 4.96%.
• The average annual inflation expectation in the U.S. over the next ten years also remained flat, and is currently 2.48%.
• NAR is forecasting interest rates to increase to 5.6% by the end of 2011.

Highlights for Tuesday, April 5, 2011

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing index fell from 59.7% in February to 57.3% in March.
• According to survey respondents, both the real estate and rental and leasing industries showed growth in March.  In addition, one respondent noted an improvement in business conditions for construction and “an increase in qualified customers.”

Highlights for Wednesday, April 6, 2011

• Mortgage applications fell 2.0 percent for the week ending April 1^st, on the heels of interest rate increases.
• Purchase applications were up 6.7 percent from the prior week and down 16.8 percent compared with a year ago.
• The weekly data does not account for the rising number of cash buyers.  According to the March REALTORS® Confidence Index, cash buyers accounted for 35 percent of transactions.

Highlights for Thursday, April 07, 2011

• New jobless claims continue moving down with 382,000 initial claims reported last week, down from the revised 388,000.
• Assuming that jobless claims continue to trend down, NAR expects about 1.5 to 2 million net new jobs in the next 12 months.

Friday, April 08, 2011

• While revolving consumer credit has continued to contract 28 of the last 29 months, non-revolving credit has continued its 7 month increase.  The current outstanding consumer credit amount is $2.42 trillion.
• Revolving credit, such as credit cards,  declined in February $2.7 billion.
• Non-revolving credit, such as credit for cars, durable goods, and vacations, increased $10.3 billion in February, which is mostly accredited to new vehicle sales.